by Br. Alexis Bugnolo
There are at least 7 reasons not to panic over corona virus 19.
First reason not to panic
The pathogen is of a family of corona viruses already known to man, as the World Health Organization explains:
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses which may cause illness in animals or humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
What they do not say, is how large a family of virus they are. But Wikipedia does, in the article on Coronaviridae:
The family Coronaviridae is organized in 2 sub-families, 5 genera, 23 sub-genera and about 40 species:
Note, that each species can have variations, some more potent than others. But of these 40 species, and all their variations, only 3 rare forms were know to be lethal to man. Corona Virus 19 is just the one discovered in 2019.
Second Reason not to Panic
The infection rates are a lot lower than are being reported. There is no definitive test for corona virus being used in emergency room admissions at hospitals. Many patients may be suffering from other kinds of infections. This is because the symptoms of Corona virus infection are similar to many other pathogens. Thus, identifying someone as infected by symptoms is unscientific.
Third Reason not to Panic
The mortality rates being reported are statistically being misrepresented. They regard the rates of mortality of patients admitted to hospitals suffering from influenza like symptoms which are presumed to be Corona virus. Thus, the current rates being reported of 3.4% do not regard only the Corona virus. Also, death may not result from the virus but from other symptoms. A highly rigorous analysis of causes of death is needed, and this cannot be done daily, this requires months of statistical analysis and has to be conducted in highly controlled environments. None of that is happening.
Fourth Reason not to Panic
The mortality rates being reported are being used by the Media to cause panic by misinterpreting them. A mortality rate of 3.4% of those presumed to be infected and who are admitted to Hospitals for grave symptoms, means that 3.4% of only that population dies. It does not refer to the entire population. You cannot multiply 3.4% by the entire population of your city, province, or Nation to extrapolate anything.
Since most never go to hospital for influenza like symptoms, and most have good enough immune systems to resist corona virus, the actual mortality rate for the entire population of your country will be a tiny fraction. The Ministry of Health data published yesterday here in Italy confirms this. While the press has claimed hundreds of thousands are infected, the Ministry confirms only 10 thousand, and 848 deaths, but they say that of these deaths there can be no certitude that they were caused by the corona virus without a rigorous study.
Thus, in Italy, with 60.48 million people, only 1.65% of 1% of the entire population is actually infected. While, La Verità today, is reporting that the first case came to Italy from Munich, Bavaria, when an Italian visited the city in January about the time of the Acies Ordinata event in that city, on January 18, 2020. Thus, in 8 weeks, a minuscule number of infections and deaths. While in Italy in 2017, 25 thousand died of the influenza from November to March, at a rate of 5000 a month, or 1250 a week, which would in the same period of time be a mortality of 10,000 or 12.5 times more lethal than corona virus 19.
Fifth Reason not to Panic
This particular strain of corona virus, cannot survive summer heat. Already in Singapore, the number of infections has fallen dramatically. This means, in northern countries which have well heated homes and public spaces, the possibility of infection will be almost non existent. Italy is suffering higher rates than the rest of Europe because heating in private and public places is abysmal. Italians turn heat on for about 1 hour a day, or two at most. And most public buildings are not heated or only to about 60 degrees. So the true mortality rates in Italy will not occur in other nations.
Sixth reason not to panic
Nothing happens except God will it. Disease is a punishment for the sin of Adam and the sins of individuals. Confessing your sins and staying in God’s grace will give you real protection from an unprovided for death. And if God has sent this pathogen to punish sinners, then it makes sense to repent and stop being a sinner.
Seventh reason not to panic
Finally, if you want to put the Corona Virus scare into historical context, just read about the Spanish Fever of 1917 or the Black Death, to see that the corona virus is not a plague or a pandemic of any level of real threat. Nations, Churches, businesses and cities should not be shut down on its account. Corona virus is not going to cause any noticeably higher death rate. You won’t see your friends dropping off or more funerals than normal, as the national rates of death from other causes are 10 to 100 times higher, as can be seen from this report about mortality in Italy.
+ + +