by Br. Alexis Bugnolo
The facts continue to discount the hype. We are being told constantly that Coronavirus 19 is a lethal pest which will kill tens of millions, and that extreme measures should be taken.
But the hard facts belie this, though few medical professionals are admitting it.
In a recent paper in a peer reviewed medical journal, Remuzzi & Remuzzi published statistical data about corona virus 19, which helps everyone put in better perspective the real challenges it poses to Italy and other nations.
Confirming what I had observed hidden in the data at hand yesterday, Remuzzi & Remuzzi admit in their paper that the majority of patients who die from Coronavirus 19 are in fact persons already at high risk on account of other medical conditions:
Italy has had 12 462 confirmed cases according to the Istituto Superiore di Sanità as of March 11, and 827 deaths. Only China has recorded more deaths due to this COVID-19 outbreak. The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers. It is therefore true that these patients had underlying health conditions, but it is also worth noting that they had acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia, needed respiratory support, and would not have died otherwise. Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men).
First, look at the mean age of those dying of Coronavirus: 81. Mean age, means that there is an equal number of those older as younger who are affected. Thus we are dealing with an illness which is targeting only a minority of the population.
Second, more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers, as Remuzzi & Rremuzzi admit. This means also, that Coronavirus is 1/3 as much a threat to healthy persons as to non healthy ones.
From these two facts we can see that for those under 50, the threat of mortality is going to be very minor indeed, and that even there, only those with serious medical conditions are threatened.
Also, 80% of those who succumb are men. Therefore, women have 25% of the risk men have for this virus! Men tend to be the smokers, and so we can begin to guess what the real problem is, those who have any risk factor which inhibits breathing or oxygenation of the lungs..
However, let me restate the break down by age, given by Remuzzi & Remuzzi for those who died of Coronavirus 19:
- 90+ years of age: 14.1%
- 80-89 years old: 42.1%
- 70-79 years old: 32.4%
- 60-69 years old: 8.4%
- 50-59 years old: 2.8%
These statistics show that for nearly half the demographic by age, the Corona Virus poses little threat, because the remaining morality is:
- 0-49 years old: 0.2%
So the hype about closing public schools is pure hype, no statistical reality to it. What they should be doing is quarantining every elderly care facility! And every elderly person with known conditions for risk factors.
PLEASE NOTE that these percentages are NOT mortality rates of the whole population, but merely an age description of those who do finally succumb. You cannot extend those rates to the whole population of those age groups! So Just because you are 70-79% does not mean your risk is 32.4%! See my previous article about the real risks.
From statistics in Italy regarding the risk factors mentioned by Remuzzi & Remuzzi, we can see that the cancer is probably lung cancer, and I will assume the diabetes is Diabetes Mellitus. Thus each year of these, 150 thousand persons die in Italy. That is 150 times the current number of victims of Coronavirus 19 in Italy. Italy however does not ban smoking, so I suppose some deaths are more politically exploitable than others.
The real revelation of the Remuzzi & Remuzzi study is that what is more likely to kill more Italians is the socialized health care system which does not have the ability to rapidly respond to the need for hospital beds. But that the press won’t talk about, because that is what the revolution is all about: killing citizens by neglect and then blaming it on Catholics holding Mass.
However, though death from Coronavirus 19 does result from respiratory pneumonia, there is yet no evidence that the virus arrives in the lungs by coughing, and it has not been found in airborne particles. Thus, the presumed carrier is hand to mouth. So wash your hands regularly especially after returning from outside, and if you have one of these health conditions, take extreme precautions.
And if the read spread of Coronavirus 19 is by hand to mouth, then we can expect even lower rates of mortality in rural areas and smaller towns where there is less frequent social contacts. And this means that the spread of the virus can be stopped, not by national quarantines or shutting down Churches, but by using hand sanitizer as frequently as possible in public places.
+ + +