by Br. Alexis Bugnolo
The Hype is a lie. The Big Lie. We have been bombarded for several weeks now with the claim that the mortality rate from Coronavirus 19 is 2.4, 2.8, 3.4 or 3.8%
This is a lie, and I will demonstrate it.
The mortality rate from any viral infection has to be calculated over the entire population which becomes infected. But this statistic — I will take the latest — of 3.4% does NOT apply to the entire population. It applies only to the population of serious cases which enter health facilities where their infection is recorded.
As I reported the other day, Medical authorities admit that 80% of those who are registered as infected by Coronavirus 19 never develop serious conditions. And the symptoms of Coronavirus 19 are no different in such cases than the common cold.
That means that a very large population will contract and has contracted Coronavirus, but does not know it.
And since only those who go to hospitals or medical facilities go there when they fear they have something serious. Now, publish reports say that 2 to 5 percent of the population are prone to fear being ill when they are not. This condition is called hypochondria. Certainly a panic can increase this kind of psychological response. As I reported the other day, there has been a 250% increase in the number of patients going to walk in medical services in the United States during the Coronavirus 19 scare. So I seems safe to say that that 2 to 5 percent is 5 to 12.5% right now.
If those are the persons who are being recorded as the 80% who never get really sick from Coronavirus 19, then we can downplay significantly the real mortality rates.
But as I reported yesterday, the surprising statistic is that 66% of those who actually die from Coronavirus 19 and who succumb due to respiratory failure are thoee who were smokers or have lung problems are at high risk, as well as those who suffer from diabetes and cardiovascular diseases.
Also, 80% of those who die are men. So women have only 25% the risk that men do. This statistic is amazing to me as an Anthropologist, because women are the ones who are more likely to enter into intimate proximity to family members when they are sick. So this statistic does not make sense. It is telling us something important. Perhaps, that proper nutrition is the best defense against Coronavirus, or being a person in the family who is more likely to get care from those around them.
But the statistics which really downplay the mortality risk are those which I reported yesterday, namely that only 0.2% of those who die from Coronavirus 19 are under 50 years of age. This is a disease which is of minimal risk to most of the population. So calm down.
Calculating the Real Mortality rate
So with all these statistics I will here calculate the mortality rate for all those who get infected, by age group and sex and existing medical condition, to show you what your real risk is, and how this is not a pandemic destined to wipe out humanity.
M = Male F=Female
Percentages of those who died
from Corona Virus by age and condition
Explanation: In this first table I took the actual mortality by age group and broke it out by the reports that 80% of victims are men and 66% of victims have risk factors, presuming that these two percentages hold evenly through each age group and risk category.
|Age||M no Risk||M at risk||F no risk||F at risk|
Now I will take the reported overall mortality rate of 3.4% for all who are identified as infected, presuming that just as 80% never get serious symptoms, so those 80% represent 5 to 12.5% of the actual infected population, on account of the effect of a hypochondriac response. This means the infected population is actually 640% greater than the identified population. So the 3.4% get diluted to 0.51325%, and then is diluted according to the statistics in the table above, to produce
Truer risk of death for all age groups and conditions
These numbers are so small I will list them as persons per 10 thousand infected
|M no Risk||M at risk||F no risk||F at risk|
So when you are considering whether YOU should panic or not, remember, the real chance of dying from Coronavirus 19 is for many of us is insignificant.
To explain, look at Women under 50 years of age who have high risk factors. Only 9 out of every 10 million who contract Coronavirus 19 will die from it!
Or take Men with risk factors who are 80 to 89 years of age. Only 14 out of every 10,000 infected will die from it. That means your grandpa who smoked his whole life, or has diabetes, or a heart condition, has a very low chance of risk. Watch over his health and make sure he eats well and stays warm and calm.
I must conclude then that the Coronvirus 19 Panic is a Main Stream Media engineered event for the political manipulation of nations. And that China and the World Health Organization have a lot of responsibility for not giving the public the true rates of mortality, categorized has I have done over the whole population of those infected.
Show this to your pastors
This analysis shows that there is no risk for the Catholic Church in opening Her churches and celebrating Her Sacraments. It is not going to cause a plague or significantly put anyone at risk. The Church should only advise those with compromised immune systems to stay away. But if the Bishops did that, it would be obvious to the faithful, how many of the clergy are not faithful to Christ, I think.
The statistics presented here are not scientific nor rigorous but are estimations and derivatives based on the assumptions in the article. Use them only to assess whether you should be entertaining panic, but not to put yourself at risk.
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