by Br. Alexis Bugnolo
Once a person gives himself up to his emotions, his reason is lost. It is a decision akin to suicide, since it is a decision to stop being reasonable. For those who have made this decision, there is little that can be done, other than perhaps slapping them in the face and telling them to calm down.
However, for those who have not committed this sort of intellectual suicide, facts remain the best defense from panic.
As I reported 5 days ago, the true mortality rate for the Wuhan Virus is not 3.4% as has been reported for weeks by the Main Stream Media, but rather less than 0.5%. And for many of us it is less than 17 chances in 10,000,000. You are more likely to win a small lottery.
And this calculation I arrived at was made on the basis of simple and basic principles of statistical analysis of social phenomenon, which I learned at the University of Florida, Gainesville, back in 1983-4. So I did not use a method which is unknown to anyone who should have basic qualifications to be giving advice to your leaders in the State or in the Church.
My findings were subsequently corroborated by several others, as I reported yesterday, in my article, You won’t die of Corona Virus unless you are already very sick.
Today, I can add several new Medical sources which confirm all of the above.
Stanford Professor says Statistics disprove the Hype
On Tuesday, Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis, who is described by DailyWire as, co-director of the Stanford University’s Meta-Research Innovation Center and professor of medicine, biomedical data science, statistics, and epidemiology and population health, in an article entitled, A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data, wrote:
The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?
wherein, he subsequently affirms that the Wuhan Virus has a true low death rate:
the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).
I had estimated the real death rate at 0.51325%, using anthropological principles on how masses of persons react in time of crisis.
Expert Team of Scientists confirm extremely low mortality rates
Now, in a scientific paper by experts in Medicine, Epidemiology and Statistics, there comes further confirmation of the actual death rate.
The paper, entitled, Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission 1 potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 2 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020, was published by Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, and Gerardo Chowell. Their combined expertise is impressive:
Dr. Mizumoto is a Professor at the Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto 7 University Yoshida–Nakaadachi–cho, in Sakyo–ku, Kyoto, Japan/
Drs. Mizumoto and Kagaya, are also researchers at the Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, in Sakyo–ku,Kyoto, Japan.
Drs. Mizumoto and Chowell also teach at the Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State 11 University, in Atlanta, Georgia, US.
And finally, Dr. Chowell is a researcher at Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science, Education and Reseach Center, 13 Kyoto University, in Shirahama–cho, Nishimuro–gun, Wakayama, Japan.
What is the conclusion of their study?
We also found that 50 most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time–delay adjusted IFR is estimated 51 to be 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), which is 52 several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.19%.
My own estimate of the crude likely-hood of death for the majority of actual cases infected as from 0.02% to 0.14%.
My point here is not self-affirmation, but simply to show that the top world experts arrive at the same conclusions, because facts are facts, and there is no way to avoid the reality of the issue. The Wuhan Virus is not a lethal plague.
World Health Organization caught lying about fundamental statistic
The Daily Mail reported yesterday afternoon, that the WHO misrepresented the mortality rate for those dying in hospitals as 3.4% — the figure I presumed was correct in my study — the real statistic for those admitted and diagnosed and subsequently dying is 1.4%, nearly a third of the previous figure. Keep in mind, that the annual winter flue has a mortality rate in the same population of 10%, and nations are never shut down nor are churches closed. Why? because that population is only those admitted to hospitals, and that only happens in extreme cases, not in the general population.
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