by Br. Alexis Bugnolo
This morning at 5 A.M. local time, Russian forces began the invasion of the Ukraine along the Belarus border, on the northern frontiers of the former Soviet S.S.R..
Russian forces comprise artillery, tanks and infantry. Belarus is supporting the military operations from within its own borders. Ukraine militarily has much inferior forces.
Russia has fired missiles at Kiev, the Ukrainian capital.
The USA and NATO have only announced new sanctions and promised the Ukraine support and assistance. Biden has explicitly affirmed that U. S. ground troops will not be deployed in the Ukraine and will not engage Russian forces, lest a World War break out.
From these basic facts, I conclude that the Ukraine cannot possibly win this war, and if Putin has committed his best forces, Kiev should be taken in a few weeks. After that I expect the resistance to collapse. But whether Russia will be able to take total control and maintain it is unclear as of yet.
The Ukraine produced the vast majority if grain, coal and steel during the Soviet Union, and Russia cannot return to being a real super power without its reincorporation. The Ukraine has been Independent from Russia inky a few decades in the last few centuries.
From the first few hours of reports, it appears that Russia is going for total annexation of the Ukraine, using strategic targeted attacks, without damaging major infrastructure, but aiming to break the Ukraine’s ability to resist conquest.
The only hope to save part of the Ukraine is if Poland invades from the west and takes that part which once belonged to her, before Russia, the USA and the U.K., decided to give it to the Soviet Union after World War II.