by Br. Alexis Bugnolo
It is in the terms of treaties that one can perceive the balance of power, and negotiations to arrive at ceasefires or armistices are key to the historical outcomes of conflicts.
For this reason, I will venture to speculate about the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia which are about to begin in Belarus (pronounced, Bella Ruse).
First, the situation on the ground will be the dominant factor in the minds of each party. In addition, prospectives about future gains and losses will greatly influence how each site proposes its position.
Russia appears to be within days of capturing the Eastern Bank of the Dniepr river, which divides the Ukraine approximately in half, East to West.
Russia’s position can be
- Complete annexation of the Ukraine.
- Annexation of large parts of the Ukraine and Separatist Republics
- Annexation of currently held positions with Separatist Republics
- Cease fire.
I think that Putin will open negotiations by pleading that #1 is the inevitable outcome and that the government of the Ukraine can avoid a lot of human suffering by accepting it immediately. I think the Ukrainians will refuse, unless of course the WEF has told them to do otherwise.
I think the war is not going as the WEF planned. The Ukrainian response has been stronger than expected. I still do not think the aide being sent by many nations is mlitarially significant, and it seems that only 12 men so far have responded to the call to form a Foreign Legion.
Likewise, Russia is having supply line and morale issues. Belarus would not be joining the war, if it were otherwise. And this disproves all those who drank the pro-Putin kool-aid these last 8 years, who think the Ukrainian people are just jumping with joy and kissing their Russian invaders as they enter their towns.
If Putin has significant issues with his military forces, that he wants to address, then he will accept something other than #2, to give him time to achieve #1 at a future date.
So, I expect that he will offer #2 as a second option, and I expect that the Ukrainian government will also strongly object, but perhaps not so forcefully as they did to #1, to indicate future negotiations as possible, later on during the talks or at another date and time.
So, then I expect Putin’s delegation to offer #3, which the Ukrainian government would object to, but which they should consider more carefully. Following such an agreement, the Ukraine could beef up its military and rally world support. And this would give them time to do so, without significant loss of populated regions. Ukraine is in a weak position at the negotiation table and this would be in practice the less worse option.
If Putin’s military problems are big, then he will instruct his delegation to suggest simply an armistice or cease fire, most likely the latter.
If he does, the Ukrainians better accept this, even though it can be broken at any time, and will only give Russia the advantage, since Russia can reorganize and resupply its military units faster and more robustly than the Ukraine during a limited cease fire of days or weeks.
UPDATES on the negotiations as they come across the wires:
I will be featuring more reports on the War in the Ukraine and the refugee crisis in coming weeks, while not neglecting those on the Great Reset.
If you would like to support my humanitarian work in this crisis, please click here and make a generous donation:
Current positions as of last night:
by Br Alexis Bugnolo
As I drive from Rome, Italy to Warsaw, Poland, I am asking if any of my readers can offer me a meal or a bed to sleep the night, in any of the following countries:
Slovenia: Afternoon/Night of March 1st
Hungary: Lunch of March 2nd
Slovakia: Night of March 2nd
Warsaw:: Lunch of March 3rd
If you can help me, leave a comment below with your Street Address and phone number and email address. I will not publish your comments, but use them to contact you.
This development is surprising, since Belarus does not have significant military forces nor military industry. But Belarus, which is planning a full union with Russia for years, in a revived Soviet State, has to risk this, because a reinvigorated Ukraine and totally isolated Russia would make uncontrolled economic trade by Belarus nearly impossible. Thus this is a situation of desperation, and it means also, that Putin must have asked for it, and that he too knows that he is losing in the Ukraine do to massive popular support of Ukraine and widespread low moral in Russian Federation Armed forces and Ministries.
by Br. Alexis Bugnolo
In war a lot of innocents suffer. And a lot of innocents suffer because there is no one at hand to help them with their necessities. This is especially true when one’s nation is overrun by superior military forces. It is even more true in Winter Time.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees is confirming this:
A report on the reality of the human tragedy unfolding:
As president of Ordo Miltiaris Inc., a US Humanitarian organization dedicated to assisting Christians in such circumstances, I have begun a Fundraising effort for the specific goal of providing humanitarian assistance in the Ukraine and to Ukrainian refugees in adjacent countries.
To support this effort, click the link below, and share that page on all social media platforms and channels.
Ordo Militaris Inc. has conducted similar fund raisers since its founding in 2016, and from the map on its home page (here) you can see Red-Pins indicating our past work. Our most recent fundraiser was for the victims of the Beirut Bombing. We have assisted Christians in Mosul, Lebanon, Armenia, Poland, the USA and India.
To coordinate and administer this effort, I will be transferring to Warsaw, Poland, within a week. And for this reason, my ability to report here at FromRome.Info will be limited during and after the transfer. I will be entrusting the Hermitage of the Holy Cross, in Italy, to the care of a devout layman, so it can continues its function as a place of refuge for Catholics in communion with Pope Benedict XVI and for canceled priests and seminarians.
Finally, I ask your prayers for myself and the volunteers who are and will be assisting me. May the Immaculate Heart place Her mantel and shield over us all.
If you would like to help me in my personal expenses, I ask you to give rather, here, through this donation button, so that the funds for the Humanitarian Relief can be kept sequestered and dedicated to that alone.
Editor’s Note: From the subtitles, it is not clear if this talk was given in the EU general assembly or the German Parliament.
Br. Bugnolo speaks on the War in the Ukraine and how this means the imminent restoration of the Soviet Union and the Soviet invasion of the European Union. As a consequence of which, it will become apparent to everyone with a sane mind, that the Consecration of Russia to the Immaculate Heart was never done and that now more than ever this Act must be accomplished for the salvation of the world.